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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
Premier League anglaise
Members Settled
Sunderland Arsenal
Final score 0 : 2 WIN
Goals 2.5 Moins de 2.5 Probability 64%
Model confidence 54%
Categoría Primera A
Members Settled
Independiente Santa Fe Deportes Tolima
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 48%
Model confidence 44%
POR D1
Members Settled
Estrela Sporting Braga
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 39%
Model confidence 41%
Ligue des champions de l'UEFA
Free Settled
Como RB Leipzig
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 55%
Model confidence 51%
Ligue des champions de l'UEFA
Members Settled
Man United Sabah FK Baku
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Oui Probability 66%
Model confidence 49%
Ligue des champions de l'UEFA
Free Settled
Man Utd Sabah FK Baku
Final score 4 : 0 WIN
Goals 2.5 Plus de 2.5 Probability 70%
Model confidence 59%
Ligue des champions de l'UEFA
Members Settled
Slavia Lens
Final score 2 : 3 LOSE
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 52%
Model confidence 49%
Ligue des champions de l'UEFA
Members Settled
Bayern Munchen Bodo/glimt
Final score 5 : 0 WIN
Goals 2.5 Plus de 2.5 Probability 69%
Model confidence 56%
Coupe d'Angleterre
Free Settled
Chelsea Leeds
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 45%
Model confidence 53%
Ligue des champions de l'UEFA
Members Settled
Napoli Arsenal
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 41%
Model confidence 48%
Ligue des champions de l'UEFA
Members Settled
Liverpool Atletico Madrid
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
BTTS Oui Probability 66%
Model confidence 61%
Ligue des champions de l'UEFA
Free Settled
Sporting Cp Galatasaray
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 59%
Model confidence 55%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.