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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
Premier League anglaise
Members Settled
Liverpool Tottenham
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 61%
Model confidence 65%
Coupe d'Angleterre
Free Settled
Ipswich Town Arsenal
Final score 2 : 4 WIN
1X2 Équipe à l'extérieur Probability 54%
Model confidence 58%
POR D1
Members Settled
Sporting Braga Estoril
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Oui Probability 58%
Model confidence 43%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Villarreal Real Betis
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 40%
Model confidence 43%
Premier League anglaise
Members Settled
Leeds Newcastle
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 39%
Model confidence 47%
Irlande PR
Free Settled
Shelbourne Drogheda Utd
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 47%
Model confidence 46%
ITA D1
Members Settled
Inter Milan Udinese
Final score 5 : 3 WIN
BTTS Oui Probability 63%
Model confidence 55%
Série B brésilienne
Members Settled
Gremio Novorizontino Cuiaba
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 50%
Model confidence 46%
BEL D1
Members Settled
Zulte Waregem Charleroi
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
BTTS Oui Probability 57%
Model confidence 43%
Premier League anglaise
Free Settled
Man United Man City
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Goals 2.5 Plus de 2.5 Probability 70%
Model confidence 63%
Ekstraklasa polonaise
Members Settled
Legia Widzew lodz
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 70%
Model confidence 60%
BEL D1
Free Settled
Racing Genk KAA Gent
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS Oui Probability 64%
Model confidence 49%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.