Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works

MODEL STATUSONLINE

Engine: POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets: 1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review: Human approved
Tracking: Automatic settlement

Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record

Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome

Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds

Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes

Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle

Published board

Latest AI predictions

ENG Premier League 16 Sep 2026 03:00

Members Settled

Liverpool Tottenham

Final score 3 : 1 WIN

1X2 Startseite Probability 61%

Model confidence 65%

ENG LC 16 Sep 2026 03:00

Free Settled

Ipswich Town Arsenal

Final score 2 : 4 WIN

1X2 Auswärts Probability 54%

Model confidence 58%

POR D1 15 Sep 2026 03:45

Members Settled

Sporting Braga Estoril

Final score 1 : 0 LOSE

BTTS Ja Probability 58%

Model confidence 43%

SPA D1 15 Sep 2026 03:00

Members Settled

Villarreal Real Betis

Final score 1 : 2 LOSE

1X2 Startseite Probability 40%

Model confidence 43%

ENG Premier League 15 Sep 2026 03:00

Members Settled

Leeds Newcastle

Final score 4 : 1 WIN

1X2 Startseite Probability 39%

Model confidence 47%

ITA D1 15 Sep 2026 02:45

Members Settled

Inter Milan Udinese

Final score 5 : 3 WIN

BTTS Ja Probability 63%

Model confidence 55%

IRE PR 15 Sep 2026 02:45

Free Settled

Shelbourne Drogheda Utd

Final score 1 : 2 LOSE

1X2 Startseite Probability 47%

Model confidence 46%

Brasilien Serie B 14 Sep 2026 05:30

Members Settled

Gremio Novorizontino Cuiaba

Final score 1 : 1 LOSE

1X2 Startseite Probability 50%

Model confidence 46%

BEL D1 14 Sep 2026 00:30

Members Settled

Zulte Waregem Charleroi

Final score 0 : 1 LOSE

BTTS Ja Probability 57%

Model confidence 43%

ENG Premier League 13 Sep 2026 23:30

Free Settled

Man United Man City

Final score 0 : 1 LOSE

Goals 2.5 Über 2.5 Probability 70%

Model confidence 63%

POLNISCHE ERSTE LIGA 13 Sep 2026 23:30

Members Settled

Legia Widzew lodz

Final score 1 : 1 LOSE

1X2 Startseite Probability 70%

Model confidence 60%

BEL D1 13 Sep 2026 22:00

Free Settled

Racing Genk KAA Gent

Final score 1 : 1 WIN

BTTS Ja Probability 64%

Model confidence 49%

Method, not magic

What the model actually does

01Read
Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.
02Estimate
Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.
03Review
Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.
04Audit
Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.