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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
英格兰超级联赛
Members Settled
Liverpool Tottenham
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 61%
Model confidence 65%
英格兰联赛杯
Free Settled
Ipswich Town Arsenal
Final score 2 : 4 WIN
1X2 客队 Probability 54%
Model confidence 58%
葡萄牙D1
Members Settled
Sporting Braga Estoril
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 58%
Model confidence 43%
西班牙乙级联赛1
Members Settled
Villarreal Real Betis
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 40%
Model confidence 43%
英格兰超级联赛
Members Settled
Leeds Newcastle
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 39%
Model confidence 47%
意大利甲级联赛 1
Members Settled
Inter Milan Udinese
Final score 5 : 3 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 63%
Model confidence 55%
爱尔兰PR
Free Settled
Shelbourne Drogheda Utd
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 47%
Model confidence 46%
巴西乙级联赛
Members Settled
Gremio Novorizontino Cuiaba
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 50%
Model confidence 46%
比利时甲级联赛 1
Members Settled
Zulte Waregem Charleroi
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 57%
Model confidence 43%
英格兰超级联赛
Free Settled
Man United Man City
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Goals 2.5 大于2.5 Probability 70%
Model confidence 63%
波兰甲级联赛
Members Settled
Legia Widzew lodz
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 70%
Model confidence 60%
比利时甲级联赛 1
Free Settled
Racing Genk KAA Gent
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 64%
Model confidence 49%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.