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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
英格兰超级联赛
Members Settled
Sunderland Arsenal
Final score 0 : 2 WIN
Goals 2.5 小於 2.5 Probability 64%
Model confidence 54%
哥伦比亚甲级联赛A组
Members Settled
Independiente Santa Fe Deportes Tolima
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 48%
Model confidence 44%
葡萄牙D1
Members Settled
Estrela Sporting Braga
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 39%
Model confidence 41%
欧洲冠军联赛
Members Settled
Slavia Lens
Final score 2 : 3 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 52%
Model confidence 49%
欧洲冠军联赛
Members Settled
Bayern Munchen Bodo/glimt
Final score 5 : 0 WIN
Goals 2.5 大于2.5 Probability 69%
Model confidence 56%
欧洲冠军联赛
Free Settled
Como RB Leipzig
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 55%
Model confidence 51%
欧洲冠军联赛
Members Settled
Man United Sabah FK Baku
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 66%
Model confidence 49%
欧洲冠军联赛
Free Settled
Man Utd Sabah FK Baku
Final score 4 : 0 WIN
Goals 2.5 大于2.5 Probability 70%
Model confidence 59%
英格兰联赛杯
Free Settled
切尔西 利兹联
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 45%
Model confidence 53%
欧洲冠军联赛
Members Settled
Napoli Arsenal
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 41%
Model confidence 48%
欧洲冠军联赛
Members Settled
Liverpool Atletico Madrid
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 66%
Model confidence 61%
欧洲冠军联赛
Free Settled
Sporting Cp Galatasaray
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 59%
Model confidence 55%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.