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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
イングランド・プレミアリーグ
Members Settled
Sunderland Arsenal
Final score 0 : 2 WIN
Goals 2.5 2.5未満 Probability 64%
Model confidence 54%
コロンビア カテゴリア・プリメーラA
Members Settled
Independiente Santa Fe Deportes Tolima
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 ホーム Probability 48%
Model confidence 44%
ポルトガル・ディビシオン 1
Members Settled
Estrela Sporting Braga
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 ホーム Probability 39%
Model confidence 41%
UEFAチャンピオンズリーグ
Free Settled
Man Utd Sabah FK Baku
Final score 4 : 0 WIN
Goals 2.5 2.5点以上 Probability 70%
Model confidence 59%
UEFAチャンピオンズリーグ
Members Settled
Slavia Lens
Final score 2 : 3 LOSE
1X2 ホーム Probability 52%
Model confidence 49%
UEFAチャンピオンズリーグ
Members Settled
Bayern Munchen Bodo/glimt
Final score 5 : 0 WIN
Goals 2.5 2.5点以上 Probability 69%
Model confidence 56%
UEFAチャンピオンズリーグ
Free Settled
Como RB Leipzig
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 ホーム Probability 55%
Model confidence 51%
UEFAチャンピオンズリーグ
Members Settled
マンチェスター・ユナイテッド サバフ・FKバクー
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
BTTS はい Probability 66%
Model confidence 49%
UEFAチャンピオンズリーグ
Free Settled
スポルティングCP ガラタサライ
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 ホーム Probability 59%
Model confidence 55%
イングランドLC
Free Settled
チェルシー リーズ
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 ホーム Probability 45%
Model confidence 53%
UEFAチャンピオンズリーグ
Members Settled
ナポリ アーセナル
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
1X2 ホーム Probability 41%
Model confidence 48%
UEFAチャンピオンズリーグ
Members Settled
リバプール アトレティコ・マドリード
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
BTTS はい Probability 66%
Model confidence 61%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.