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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes only one selected prediction per match. Every prediction is reviewed before publication and measured after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V2
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 57.1% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI +20.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 77 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 44W 33L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

BEL D1
Free Settled
Zulte-Waregem Racing Genk
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 52%
Model confidence 50%
POL Liga 2
Members Settled
Legia Warszawa B Swit Szczecin
Final score 5 : 0 WIN
Member probability model

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GER D2
Free Settled
Nurnberg Dynamo Dresden
Final score 3 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 53%
Model confidence 49%
GER D2
Members Settled
Cottbus Hannover 96
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
Member probability model

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ROM D1
Free Settled
FCSB Farul Constanta
Final score 2 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 48%
Model confidence 48%
CRC D1
Members Settled
Saprissa San Carlos
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
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BUL D1
Members Settled
CSKA Sofia FC Dunav Ruse
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
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POL PR
Members Settled
GKS Katowice Radomiak Radom
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
Member probability model

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DEN SASL
Members Settled
Silkeborg FC Copenhagen
Final score 1 : 3 LOSE
Member probability model

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POL D1
Members Settled
Stal Mielec Podbeskidzie
Final score 3 : 3 WIN
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NOR D1
Members Settled
Aalesund FK Tromso IL
Final score 2 : 6 WIN
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SUI Sl
Members Settled
Vaduz St. Gallen
Final score 2 : 3 WIN
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Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Keeps every generated forecast in draft until an editor approves it for publication.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.