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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
Ligue des nations de l'UEFA
Members Settled
République tchèque Croatie
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 42%
Model confidence 42%
Ligue des nations de l'UEFA
Members Settled
Bulgaria Luxembourg
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 41%
Model confidence 41%
Ligue des nations de l'UEFA
Members Settled
Slovenia Scotland
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 41%
Model confidence 41%
Ligue des nations de l'UEFA
Free Settled
Pays-Bas Allemagne
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS Oui Probability 63%
Model confidence 47%
Ligue des nations de l'UEFA
Members Settled
Portugal Pays de Galles
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Oui Probability 66%
Model confidence 50%
Ligue des nations de l'UEFA
Members Settled
Autriche Israël
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
BTTS Oui Probability 63%
Model confidence 48%
Ligue des nations de l'UEFA
Free Settled
Norway Denmark
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
BTTS Oui Probability 63%
Model confidence 47%
Ligue des nations de l'UEFA
Members Settled
Andorra Malta
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS Oui Probability 61%
Model confidence 46%
FIFA ASEAN C
Free Settled
Myanmar Timor Leste
Final score 2 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Oui Probability 61%
Model confidence 45%
INT FRL
Members Settled
South Korea Équateur
Final score 3 : 0 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 46%
Model confidence 43%
MLS
Members Settled
Seattle Sounders FC Real Salt Lake
Final score 2 : 0 LOSE
Goals 2.5 Plus de 2.5 Probability 65%
Model confidence 49%
Coupe du Chili
Members Settled
Deportes Iquique C.D. Antofagasta
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 46%
Model confidence 43%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.