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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Members Settled
북마케도니아 스위스
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
BTTS 예 Probability 57%
Model confidence 42%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Members Settled
불가리아 룩셈부르크
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 41%
Model confidence 41%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Members Settled
슬로베니아 스코틀랜드
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 41%
Model confidence 41%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Members Settled
Portugal Wales
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 예 Probability 66%
Model confidence 50%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Members Settled
Austria Israel
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 63%
Model confidence 48%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Free Settled
Norway Denmark
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 63%
Model confidence 47%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Free Settled
네덜란드 독일
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 63%
Model confidence 47%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Members Settled
안도라 몰타
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 61%
Model confidence 46%
FIFA 아세안 C
Free Settled
미얀마 동티모르
Final score 2 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 예 Probability 61%
Model confidence 45%
인터내셔널 프렌들리
Members Settled
대한민국 에콰도르
Final score 3 : 0 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 46%
Model confidence 43%
메이저 리그 사커
Members Settled
시애틀 사운더스 리얼 솔트 레이크
Final score 2 : 0 LOSE
Goals 2.5 2.5 이상 Probability 65%
Model confidence 49%
칠레 컵
Members Settled
이키케 안토파가스타
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 46%
Model confidence 43%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.