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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
브라질 디비전 1
Members Settled
비토리아 바이아 샤페코엔세
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 예 Probability 63%
Model confidence 46%
브라질 디비전 1
Free Settled
브라간티누 미라솔
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 63%
Model confidence 47%
칠레 컵
Free Settled
코킴보 우니도 코브렐로아
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 48%
Model confidence 45%
칠레 컵
Members Settled
안토파가스타 우니베르시다드
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 48%
Model confidence 44%
인터내셔널 프렌들리
Members Settled
아르헨티나 볼리비아
Final score 4 : 0 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 53%
Model confidence 48%
브라질 세리에 B
Members Settled
아메리카 MG 에스포르테 클루비 쥬벤투지
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 50%
Model confidence 46%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Members Settled
북마케도니아 스위스
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
BTTS 예 Probability 57%
Model confidence 42%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Members Settled
체코 공화국 크로아티아
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 42%
Model confidence 42%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Members Settled
불가리아 룩셈부르크
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 41%
Model confidence 41%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Members Settled
슬로베니아 스코틀랜드
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 41%
Model confidence 41%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Free Settled
네덜란드 독일
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 63%
Model confidence 47%
UEFA 네이션스 리그
Members Settled
Portugal Wales
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 예 Probability 66%
Model confidence 50%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.