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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes only one selected prediction per match. Every prediction is reviewed before publication and measured after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V2
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 57.1% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI +20.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 77 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 44W 33L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

INT CF
Free Settled
Atalanta Ath. Bilbao
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 59%
Model confidence 48%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Egnatia Shamrock Rovers
Final score 5 : 1 WIN
Member probability model

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UEFA EL
Free Settled
Hearts Benfica
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 47%
INT CF
Members Settled
Coruna Real Madrid
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Member probability model

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UEFA SC
Free Settled
Psg Aston Villa
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 53%
Model confidence 60%
INT CF
Members Settled
Nottingham Leverkusen
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
Member probability model

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POR D1
Members Settled
Santa Clara Madeira
Final score 2 : 2 WIN
Member probability model

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ECU D1
Members Settled
Tecnico Mushuc Runa
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
Member probability model

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ROM D1
Free Settled
Sepsi OSK FCSB
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 61%
Model confidence 47%
SWE D2
Members Settled
Norrby IF Orebro
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
Member probability model

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POR D1
Free Settled
Benfica Viseu
Final score 2 : 2 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 50%
ICE PR
Free Settled
Vikingur IBV
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 53%
Model confidence 49%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Keeps every generated forecast in draft until an editor approves it for publication.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.