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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
BRA D1
Members Settled
Vitoria BA Chapecoense
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 46%
BRA D1
Free Settled
Bragantino Mirassol
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 47%
Chile Cup
Free Settled
Coquimbo Unido Cobreloa
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 48%
Model confidence 45%
Chile Cup
Members Settled
Antofagasta Universidad
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 48%
Model confidence 44%
INT FRL
Members Settled
Argentina Bolivia
Final score 4 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 53%
Model confidence 48%
BRA Serie B
Members Settled
America MG Esporte Clube Juventude
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 50%
Model confidence 46%
UEFA NL
Members Settled
North Macedonia Switzerland
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 57%
Model confidence 42%
UEFA NL
Members Settled
Czech Republic Croatia
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 42%
Model confidence 42%
UEFA NL
Members Settled
Bulgaria Luxembourg
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 41%
Model confidence 41%
UEFA NL
Members Settled
Slovenia Scotland
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 41%
Model confidence 41%
UEFA NL
Members Settled
Austria Israel
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 48%
UEFA NL
Free Settled
Norway Denmark
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 47%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.