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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
UEFA CL
Members Settled
Bratislava VfB Stuttgart
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 63%
Model confidence 56%
ENG LCH
Members Settled
Portsmouth Sheffield United
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 55%
Model confidence 52%
NOR AL
Members Settled
Stromsgodset Kongsvinger
Final score 5 : 1 WIN
Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 68%
Model confidence 51%
UEFA CL
Members Settled
LASK Linz Liverpool
Final score 3 : 6 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 55%
Model confidence 60%
PAR Primera Division
Members Settled
Sportivo Luqueno Cerro Porteno
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 60%
Model confidence 44%
ARG Division 1
Free Settled
Club Atletico Tigre CA Banfield
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 60%
Model confidence 44%
POR D1
Members Settled
Sporting Braga Sporting CP
Final score 1 : 3 WIN
1X2 Away Probability 45%
Model confidence 45%
COL D1
Members Settled
Medellin Tolima
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 49%
Model confidence 46%
BRA D1
Members Settled
Paranaense Mineiro
Final score 2 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 50%
Model confidence 46%
BRA D1
Free Settled
Santos Flamengo
Final score 2 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 47%
Model confidence 46%
PER L1
Members Settled
Atletico Grau Los Chankas
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 49%
Model confidence 46%
BRA D1
Members Settled
Botafogo RJ Vasco da Gama
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 62%
Model confidence 46%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.