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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
GERMANY D1
Members Settled
FRANKFURT KOLN
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 66%
Model confidence 52%
HOL D1
Members Settled
Heerenveen Excelsior SBV
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 46%
FRA D2
Members Settled
Guingamp Pau FC
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 91%
Model confidence 71%
SWE D1
Members Settled
Brommapojkarna Djurgardens
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 58%
Model confidence 52%
DEN SASL
Free Settled
AC Horsens Randers FC
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 Away Probability 41%
Model confidence 42%
TUR D1
Free Settled
Belediyespor Caykur Rizespor
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 47%
MLS
Free Settled
Inter Miami CF New York
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 54%
Model confidence 48%
UEFA UCL
Free Settled
BODO GLIMT DORTMUND
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 60%
Model confidence 53%
UEFA CL
Free Settled
Real Betis FC Porto
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 47%
Model confidence 52%
UEFA CL
Members Settled
Man City PSG
Final score 2 : 4 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 62%
Model confidence 66%
UEFA CL
Members Settled
AS Roma Real Madrid
Final score 3 : 4 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 43%
Model confidence 53%
UEFA CL
Members Settled
Bodo Glimt Dortmund
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 62%
Model confidence 55%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.