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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
FRA D1
Free Settled
PSG Lyon
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 61%
Model confidence 65%
SPA D1
Members Settled
FC Barcelona Real Madrid
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 64%
Model confidence 58%
POR D1
Members Settled
Gil Vicente FC Porto
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 67%
Model confidence 56%
ENG PR
Members Settled
Ipswich Town Nottingham
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 68%
Model confidence 56%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Alaves Malaga
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 68%
Model confidence 61%
ITA D1
Free Settled
Torino Monza
Final score 3 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Away Probability 42%
Model confidence 44%
FRA D1
Free Settled
Stade Brestois Nice
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 64%
Model confidence 52%
POR D1
Members Settled
Sporting Braga Gil Vicente
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 57%
Model confidence 44%
ICE PR
Free Settled
Fram Reykjavik IA Akranes
Final score 2 : 4 WIN
Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 70%
Model confidence 52%
SPA D1
Free Settled
Coruna Levante
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 51%
Model confidence 48%
FRA D1
Members Settled
Le Mans Toulouse
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 52%
Model confidence 49%
GER D1
Free Settled
Frankfurt FC Koln
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 63%
Model confidence 59%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.