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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
FRANKREICH D1
Free Settled
Paris Saint-Germain Olympique Lyon
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 61%
Model confidence 65%
SPA D1
Members Settled
FC Barcelona Real Madrid
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS Ja Probability 64%
Model confidence 58%
POR D1
Members Settled
Gil Vicente FC Porto
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Goals 2.5 Über 2.5 Probability 67%
Model confidence 56%
ENG Premier League
Members Settled
Ipswich Town Nottingham Forest
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS Ja Probability 68%
Model confidence 56%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Deportivo Alavés Málaga CF
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 68%
Model confidence 61%
ITA D1
Free Settled
Torino FC AC Monza
Final score 3 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Auswärts Probability 42%
Model confidence 44%
FRANKREICH D1
Free Settled
Stade Brestois OGC Nice
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS Ja Probability 64%
Model confidence 52%
POR D1
Members Settled
SC Braga Gil Vicente
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS Ja Probability 57%
Model confidence 44%
ICE PR
Free Settled
Fram Reykjavík ÍA Akranes
Final score 2 : 4 WIN
Goals 2.5 Über 2.5 Probability 70%
Model confidence 52%
SPA D1
Free Settled
Deportivo La Coruña Levante UD
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 51%
Model confidence 48%
FRANKREICH D1
Members Settled
Le Mans Toulouse
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 52%
Model confidence 49%
GER D1
Free Settled
Eintracht Frankfurt FC Koln
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 63%
Model confidence 59%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.