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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
法国D1
Free Settled
PSG Lyon
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 61%
Model confidence 65%
西班牙乙级联赛1
Members Settled
FC Barcelona Real Madrid
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 64%
Model confidence 58%
葡萄牙D1
Members Settled
Gil Vicente FC Porto
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Goals 2.5 大于2.5 Probability 67%
Model confidence 56%
英格兰超级联赛
Members Settled
伊普斯维奇镇 诺丁汉
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 68%
Model confidence 56%
西班牙乙级联赛1
Members Settled
阿拉维斯 马拉加
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 68%
Model confidence 61%
意大利甲级联赛 1
Free Settled
都灵 蒙扎
Final score 3 : 2 LOSE
1X2 客队 Probability 42%
Model confidence 44%
法国D1
Free Settled
布雷斯特 尼斯
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 64%
Model confidence 52%
葡萄牙D1
Members Settled
布拉加体育 吉尔维森特
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 57%
Model confidence 44%
冰岛超级联赛
Free Settled
雷克雅未克弗拉姆 阿克拉内斯IA
Final score 2 : 4 WIN
Goals 2.5 大于2.5 Probability 70%
Model confidence 52%
西班牙乙级联赛1
Free Settled
拉科鲁尼亚 莱万特
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 51%
Model confidence 48%
法国D1
Members Settled
勒芒 图卢兹
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 52%
Model confidence 49%
德国D1
Free Settled
法兰克福 科隆足球俱乐部
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 63%
Model confidence 59%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.