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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
德国德甲联赛1
Members Settled
法兰克福 科隆
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 66%
Model confidence 52%
荷兰德甲联赛1
Members Settled
海伦芬 埃克塞尔西尔
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 63%
Model confidence 46%
法国德甲联赛2
Members Settled
甘冈 波城足球俱乐部
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
Goals 2.5 大于2.5 Probability 91%
Model confidence 71%
TUR D1
Free Settled
Belediyespor Caykur Rizespor
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 63%
Model confidence 47%
瑞典德甲联赛1
Members Settled
Brommapojkarna Djurgardens
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 58%
Model confidence 52%
丹麦超级联赛
Free Settled
AC Horsens Randers FC
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 客队 Probability 41%
Model confidence 42%
美国职业足球大联盟
Free Settled
Inter Miami CF New York
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 54%
Model confidence 48%
欧洲冠军联赛
Members Settled
Bodo Glimt Dortmund
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 62%
Model confidence 55%
欧洲冠军联赛
Members Settled
Bratislava VfB Stuttgart
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 63%
Model confidence 56%
欧洲冠军联赛
Free Settled
BODO GLIMT DORTMUND
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 60%
Model confidence 53%
欧洲冠军联赛
Free Settled
Real Betis FC Porto
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 47%
Model confidence 52%
欧洲冠军联赛
Members Settled
Man City PSG
Final score 2 : 4 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 62%
Model confidence 66%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.