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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes only one selected prediction per match. Every prediction is reviewed before publication and measured after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V2
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 57.1% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI +20.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 77 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 44W 33L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

POR D1
Members Settled
Casa Pia AC Benfica
Final score 0 : 7 LOSE
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SPA D1
Members Settled
Coruna Elche
Final score 3 : 0 LOSE
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ENG LCH
Free Settled
Cardiff City Wrexham
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
ROM D1
Members Settled
FCSB FC Botosani
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
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SWE D1
Members Settled
Hacken Halmstads
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
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POL D1
Members Settled
Arka Gdynia Puszcza
Final score 3 : 0 WIN
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ITA Cup
Members Settled
Sassuolo Cesena
Final score 3 : 0 LOSE
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FIN D1
Free Settled
Gnistan Helsinki Ilves Tampere
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 48%
MLS
Members Settled
Nashville SC Inter Miami CF
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
Member probability model

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SPA D1
Members Settled
Sevilla Rayo Vallecano
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
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HOL D1
Members Settled
Fortuna Sittard SC Cambuur
Final score 3 : 1 LOSE
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ENG LCH
Members Settled
Wolves Blackburn Rovers
Final score 2 : 2 LOSE
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Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Keeps every generated forecast in draft until an editor approves it for publication.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.