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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
哥斯达黎加 D1
Members Settled
Saprissa San Carlos
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 49%
Model confidence 47%
保加利亚甲级联赛 1
Members Settled
索菲亚中央陆军足球俱乐部 鲁塞杜纳夫足球俱乐部
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 51%
Model confidence 46%
POL PR
Members Settled
卡托维兹GKS 拉多米亚克拉多姆
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 65%
Model confidence 58%
丹麦超级联赛
Members Settled
锡尔克堡 哥本哈根足球俱乐部
Final score 1 : 3 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 46%
Model confidence 49%
波兰D1
Members Settled
梅莱茨钢铁队 波德比斯基队
Final score 3 : 3 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 59%
Model confidence 48%
挪威 D1
Members Settled
奥勒松足球俱乐部 特罗姆瑟伊尔队
Final score 2 : 6 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 64%
Model confidence 52%
瑞士超级联赛
Members Settled
瓦杜兹 圣加伦
Final score 2 : 3 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 63%
Model confidence 51%
瑞典德甲联赛1
Members Settled
布罗马队 马尔默足球俱乐部
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 48%
波兰D1
Free Settled
阿尔卡格丁尼亚队 热舒夫钢铁队
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 63%
Model confidence 49%
瑞典德甲联赛1
Free Settled
希恩肯队 卡尔马队
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 62%
Model confidence 52%
AFF Cup
Members Settled
泰国 马来西亚
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 59%
Model confidence 53%
SAPL D1
Members Settled
金箭队 奇帕联队
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 46%
Model confidence 46%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.