CSKA Sofia

OptaTips model poisson-wtd-v1 evaluates CSKA Sofia against FC Dunav Ruse in BUL D1 using a transparent weighted-Poisson baseline. The model processed 2196 deduplicated historical scorelines, with recent results receiving more influence through a 180-day exponential half-life. The projected goal rates are 1.55 for the home side and 0.98 for the away side.

The model compares 1X2, Goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals on a calibrated scale, then publishes exactly one forecast. The selected market is 1X2: Home, with a true model probability of 50.6%. Model confidence is 46.0%; it is not a guarantee that the selection will win.

This prediction uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips and does not yet include confirmed line-ups, injuries, suspensions, weather or live market movement. An editor must verify the fixture, timing and selection before publication. This analysis supports research and entertainment only and should never replace independent judgement or responsible bankroll limits.