Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works

MODEL STATUSONLINE

Engine: POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets: 1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review: Human approved
Tracking: Automatic settlement

Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record

Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome

Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds

Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes

Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle

Published board

Latest AI predictions

ENG LC 29 Oct 2026 04:00

Members Settled

Liverpool Chelsea

Final score 1 : 1 WIN

BTTS Yes Probability 63%

Model confidence 58%

ENG LC 29 Oct 2026 03:45

Members Settled

Fulham Crystal Palace

Final score 0 : 1 LOSE

1X2 Home Probability 60%

Model confidence 60%

GERC 29 Oct 2026 03:45

Members Settled

Bayern Munchen Magdeburg

Final score 6 : 1 WIN

1X2 Home Probability 77%

Model confidence 69%

ITA D1 29 Oct 2026 03:45

Members Settled

Monza Napoli

Final score 1 : 4 LOSE

1X2 Home Probability 52%

Model confidence 52%

CARABAO CUP 29 Oct 2026 03:45

Free Settled

FULHAM CRYSTAL PALACE

Final score 0 : 1 LOSE

1X2 Home Probability 59%

Model confidence 59%

ENG LC 29 Oct 2026 03:30

Free Settled

Man City Brighton

Final score 2 : 2 WIN

Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 71%

Model confidence 65%

ITA D1 28 Oct 2026 03:45

Members Settled

Torino Como

Final score 1 : 3 WIN

1X2 Away Probability 55%

Model confidence 55%

ITA D1 28 Oct 2026 03:45

Free Settled

AS Roma Cagliari

Final score 4 : 2 WIN

Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 66%

Model confidence 55%

GERMANY CUP 28 Oct 2026 03:45

Members Settled

EVERSBERG DARMSTADT

Final score 0 : 2 LOSE

BTTS Yes Probability 61%

Model confidence 46%

GERC 28 Oct 2026 03:45

Members Settled

Dortmund Werder Bremen

Final score 3 : 2 WIN

Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 73%

Model confidence 64%

BRA D1 27 Oct 2026 07:00

Members Settled

Flamengo Mineiro

Final score 3 : 2 WIN

Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 68%

Model confidence 52%

SPA D2 27 Oct 2026 03:30

Members Settled

Andorra FC Burgos

Final score 2 : 3 LOSE

1X2 Home Probability 48%

Model confidence 45%

Method, not magic

What the model actually does

01Read
Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.
02Estimate
Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.
03Review
Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.
04Audit
Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.