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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.1% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 281 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 152W 129L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
BEL D1
Free Settled
Zulte-Waregem Racing Genk
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 52%
Model confidence 50%
POL Liga 2
Members Settled
Legia Warszawa B Swit Szczecin
Final score 5 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 45%
Model confidence 43%
GER D2
Free Settled
Nurnberg Dynamo Dresden
Final score 3 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 53%
Model confidence 49%
GER D2
Members Settled
Cottbus Hannover 96
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 49%
Model confidence 47%
ROM D1
Free Settled
FCSB Farul Constanta
Final score 2 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 48%
Model confidence 48%
CRC D1
Members Settled
Saprissa San Carlos
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 49%
Model confidence 47%
BUL D1
Members Settled
CSKA Sofia FC Dunav Ruse
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 51%
Model confidence 46%
POL PR
Members Settled
GKS Katowice Radomiak Radom
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 65%
Model confidence 58%
DEN SASL
Members Settled
Silkeborg FC Copenhagen
Final score 1 : 3 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 46%
Model confidence 49%
POL D1
Members Settled
Stal Mielec Podbeskidzie
Final score 3 : 3 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 59%
Model confidence 48%
NOR D1
Members Settled
Aalesund FK Tromso IL
Final score 2 : 6 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 64%
Model confidence 52%
SUI Sl
Members Settled
Vaduz St. Gallen
Final score 2 : 3 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 51%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.