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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
INT CF
Members Settled
Nottingham Leverkusen
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 45%
Model confidence 45%
POR D1
Members Settled
Santa Clara Madeira
Final score 2 : 2 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 46%
ECU D1
Members Settled
Tecnico Mushuc Runa
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 46%
Model confidence 43%
ROM D1
Free Settled
Sepsi OSK FCSB
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 61%
Model confidence 47%
SWE D2
Members Settled
Norrby IF Orebro
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 49%
Model confidence 46%
POR D1
Free Settled
Benfica Viseu
Final score 2 : 2 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 50%
ICE PR
Free Settled
Vikingur IBV
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 53%
Model confidence 49%
BEL D1
Free Settled
Zulte-Waregem Racing Genk
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 52%
Model confidence 50%
POL Liga 2
Members Settled
Legia Warszawa B Swit Szczecin
Final score 5 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 45%
Model confidence 43%
GER D2
Free Settled
Nurnberg Dynamo Dresden
Final score 3 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 53%
Model confidence 49%
GER D2
Members Settled
Cottbus Hannover 96
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 49%
Model confidence 47%
ROM D1
Free Settled
FCSB Farul Constanta
Final score 2 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 48%
Model confidence 48%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.