Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works

MODEL STATUSONLINE

Engine: POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets: 1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review: Human approved
Tracking: Automatic settlement

Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record

Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome

Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds

Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes

Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle

Published board

Latest AI predictions

POL D1 18 Aug 2026 01:00

Members Settled

Arka Gdynia Puszcza

Final score 3 : 0 WIN

1X2 Home Probability 61%

Model confidence 53%

ITA Cup 18 Aug 2026 00:30

Members Settled

Sassuolo Cesena

Final score 3 : 0 LOSE

Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%

Model confidence 43%

FIN D1 17 Aug 2026 23:00

Free Settled

Gnistan Helsinki Ilves Tampere

Final score 3 : 2 WIN

BTTS Yes Probability 63%

Model confidence 48%

MLS 16 Aug 2026 08:30

Members Settled

Nashville SC Inter Miami CF

Final score 4 : 1 WIN

1X2 Home Probability 48%

Model confidence 44%

SPA D1 16 Aug 2026 03:30

Members Settled

Sevilla Rayo Vallecano

Final score 2 : 1 WIN

1X2 Home Probability 55%

Model confidence 53%

HOL D1 16 Aug 2026 03:00

Members Settled

Fortuna Sittard SC Cambuur

Final score 3 : 1 LOSE

Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%

Model confidence 45%

ENG LCH 15 Aug 2026 03:00

Members Settled

Wolves Blackburn Rovers

Final score 2 : 2 LOSE

Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%

Model confidence 46%

INT CF 15 Aug 2026 02:45

Free Settled

Atalanta Ath. Bilbao

Final score 1 : 0 LOSE

BTTS Yes Probability 59%

Model confidence 48%

UEFA EL 14 Aug 2026 03:00

Members Settled

Egnatia Shamrock Rovers

Final score 5 : 1 WIN

1X2 Home Probability 45%

Model confidence 43%

UEFA EL 14 Aug 2026 02:45

Free Settled

Hearts Benfica

Final score 1 : 1 WIN

Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%

Model confidence 47%

INT CF 13 Aug 2026 03:00

Members Settled

Coruna Real Madrid

Final score 0 : 1 LOSE

Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%

Model confidence 50%

UEFA SC 13 Aug 2026 03:00

Free Settled

Psg Aston Villa

Final score 2 : 1 WIN

1X2 Home Probability 53%

Model confidence 60%

Method, not magic

What the model actually does

01Read
Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.
02Estimate
Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.
03Review
Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.
04Audit
Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.