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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
POL D1
Members Settled
Arka Gdynia Puszcza Niepołomice
Final score 3 : 0 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 61%
Model confidence 53%
Coupe d'Italie
Members Settled
US Sassuolo AC Cesena
Final score 3 : 0 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 43%
FIN D1
Free Settled
GNISTAN Helsinki Ilves Tampere
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
BTTS Oui Probability 63%
Model confidence 48%
MLS
Members Settled
Nashville SC Inter Miami CF
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 48%
Model confidence 44%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Sevilla Rayo Vallecano
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 55%
Model confidence 53%
HOL D1
Members Settled
Fortuna Sittard SC Cambuur
Final score 3 : 1 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 45%
Championnat anglais
Members Settled
Wolves Blackburn Rovers
Final score 2 : 2 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 46%
Coupe internationale
Free Settled
Atalanta Ath. Bilbao
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Oui Probability 59%
Model confidence 48%
UEFA Ligue Europa
Members Settled
Egnatia Shamrock Rovers
Final score 5 : 1 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 45%
Model confidence 43%
UEFA Ligue Europa
Free Settled
Hearts Benfica
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 47%
Coupe internationale
Members Settled
Coruna Real Madrid
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 50%
Supercoupe de l'UEFA
Free Settled
Psg Aston Villa
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 53%
Model confidence 60%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.