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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
CRC D1
Members Settled
Saprissa San Carlos
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 49%
Model confidence 47%
BUL D1
Members Settled
CSKA Sofia FC Dunav Ruse
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 51%
Model confidence 46%
폴란드 엑스트라클라사
Members Settled
GKS Katowice Radomiak Radom
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 65%
Model confidence 58%
덴마크 수퍼리그
Members Settled
Silkeborg FC Copenhagen
Final score 1 : 3 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 46%
Model confidence 49%
POL D1
Members Settled
Stal Mielec Podbeskidzie
Final score 3 : 3 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 59%
Model confidence 48%
노르웨이 디비전 1
Members Settled
Aalesund FK Tromso IL
Final score 2 : 6 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 64%
Model confidence 52%
스위 슬
Members Settled
Vaduz St. Gallen
Final score 2 : 3 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 63%
Model confidence 51%
스웨덴 D1
Members Settled
Bromma Malmo FF
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 48%
POL D1
Free Settled
Arka Gdynia Stal Rzeszow
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 예 Probability 63%
Model confidence 49%
스웨덴 D1
Free Settled
Hacken Kalmar
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 62%
Model confidence 52%
AFF컵
Members Settled
Thailand Malaysia
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 59%
Model confidence 53%
SAPL D1
Members Settled
Golden Arrows Chippa United
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 46%
Model confidence 46%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.