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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
欧联杯
Members Settled
特拉布宗体育 费伦茨瓦罗斯
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 49%
Model confidence 48%
欧足联欧洲协会联赛
Members Settled
特罗姆瑟 布莱顿
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 51%
Model confidence 53%
欧联杯
Free Settled
艾格纳提亚 利勒斯特罗姆
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 58%
Model confidence 52%
欧联杯
Members Settled
Mjallby AIF Salzburg
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Goals 2.5 大于2.5 Probability 69%
Model confidence 53%
欧联杯
Members Settled
Kairat Anderlecht
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
西班牙乙级联赛1
Members Settled
Atletico Madrid Malaga
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 55%
Model confidence 53%
欧洲冠军联赛
Members Settled
Dinamo Viking
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
葡萄牙D1
Members Settled
Casa Pia AC Benfica
Final score 0 : 7 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 47%
西班牙乙级联赛1
Members Settled
Coruna Elche
Final score 3 : 0 LOSE
Goals 2.5 小於 2.5 Probability 60%
Model confidence 45%
英格兰英冠联赛
Free Settled
Cardiff City Wrexham
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
罗马尼亚甲级联赛 1
Members Settled
FCSB FC Botosani
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 59%
Model confidence 47%
瑞典德甲联赛1
Members Settled
Hacken Halmstads
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 50%
Model confidence 46%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.