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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
UEFAヨーロッパリーグ
Members Settled
トラブゾンスポル フェレンツヴァロシュ
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
1X2 ホーム Probability 49%
Model confidence 48%
UEFAヨーロッパカンファレンスリーグ
Members Settled
トロムソIL ブライトン
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 ホーム Probability 51%
Model confidence 53%
UEFAヨーロッパリーグ
Free Settled
エグナティア リレストロム
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 ホーム Probability 58%
Model confidence 52%
UEFAヨーロッパリーグ
Members Settled
Mjallby AIF Salzburg
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Goals 2.5 2.5点以上 Probability 69%
Model confidence 53%
UEFAヨーロッパリーグ
Members Settled
カイラト アンドレレヒト
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
BTTS はい Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
SPA D1
Members Settled
アトレティコ・マドリード マラガ
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 ホーム Probability 55%
Model confidence 53%
UEFAチャンピオンズリーグ
Members Settled
ディナモ バイキング
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS はい Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
ポルトガル・ディビシオン 1
Members Settled
カーサ・ピアAC ベンフィカ
Final score 0 : 7 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 47%
SPA D1
Members Settled
コルーニャ エルチェ
Final score 3 : 0 LOSE
Goals 2.5 2.5未満 Probability 60%
Model confidence 45%
イングランド・リーグ・チャレンジ
Free Settled
カーディフ・シティ ウェクスハム
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS はい Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
ROMリーグ1
Members Settled
FCSB FC Botosani
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
BTTS はい Probability 59%
Model confidence 47%
スウェーデンD1
Members Settled
Hacken Halmstads
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 ホーム Probability 50%
Model confidence 46%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.