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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
UEFA 유로파리그
Members Settled
Trabzonspor Ferencvarosi
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 49%
Model confidence 48%
UEFA 유로파컨퍼런스리그
Members Settled
Tromso IL Brighton
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 51%
Model confidence 53%
UEFA 유로파리그
Free Settled
Egnatia Lillestrom
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 58%
Model confidence 52%
UEFA 유로파리그
Members Settled
Mjallby AIF Salzburg
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Goals 2.5 2.5 이상 Probability 69%
Model confidence 53%
UEFA 유로파리그
Members Settled
카이라트 안데를레흐트
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
BTTS 예 Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
SPA D1
Members Settled
아틀레티코 마드리드 말라가
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 55%
Model confidence 53%
UEFA 챔피언스리그
Members Settled
디나모 바이킹
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
포르투갈 디비전 1
Members Settled
카사 피아 AC 벤피카
Final score 0 : 7 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 47%
잉글랜드 챔피언십
Free Settled
카디프 시티 렉섬
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
SPA D1
Members Settled
코루냐 엘체
Final score 3 : 0 LOSE
Goals 2.5 2.5 이하 Probability 60%
Model confidence 45%
루마니아 디비전 1
Members Settled
FCSB FC 보토샤니
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 59%
Model confidence 47%
스웨덴 D1
Members Settled
헤크켄 할름스타드
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 50%
Model confidence 46%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.