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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
UEFA Europa League
Members Settled
Trabzonspor Ferencvárosi TC
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 49%
Model confidence 48%
UEFA Europa Conference League
Members Settled
Tromsø IL Brighton & Hove Albion
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 51%
Model confidence 53%
UEFA Europa League
Free Settled
Egnatia Lillestrøm SK
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 58%
Model confidence 52%
UEFA Europa League
Members Settled
Mjallby AIF Salzburg
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Goals 2.5 Über 2.5 Probability 69%
Model confidence 53%
UEFA Europa League
Members Settled
Kairat Almaty RSC Anderlecht
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
BTTS Ja Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Atlético Madrid Málaga CF
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 55%
Model confidence 53%
UEFA Champions League
Members Settled
Dinamo Zagreb Viking FK
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS Ja Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
POR D1
Members Settled
Casa Pia AC SL Benfica
Final score 0 : 7 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 47%
ENG LCH
Free Settled
Cardiff City Wrexham
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS Ja Probability 59%
Model confidence 46%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Deportivo La Coruña Elche
Final score 3 : 0 LOSE
Goals 2.5 Unter 2.5 Probability 60%
Model confidence 45%
ROM D1
Members Settled
FCSB FC Botosani
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
BTTS Ja Probability 59%
Model confidence 47%
SWE D1
Members Settled
Hacken Halmstads
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 50%
Model confidence 46%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.