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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
ENG Premier League
Members Settled
Everton Crystal Palace
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 54%
Model confidence 55%
ASEAN-Cup
Members Settled
Thailand Vietnam
Final score 0 : 2 WIN
1X2 Auswärts Probability 45%
Model confidence 46%
ENG Premier League
Members Settled
Hull City Man United
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 46%
Model confidence 44%
PER L1
Members Settled
Alianza Sporting Cristal
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 46%
Model confidence 44%
ENG Premier League
Members Settled
Arsenal Coventry City
Final score 3 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 50%
Model confidence 58%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Real Betis Real Sociedad
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 58%
Model confidence 57%
FRANKREICH D1
Members Settled
Marseille Strasbourg
Final score 4 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 48%
Model confidence 47%
UEFA Europa League
Members Settled
Benfica Aarhus AGF
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 64%
Model confidence 61%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Rayo Vallecano Alaves
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 54%
Model confidence 51%
UEFA Europa Conference League
Free Settled
FC Sion AFC Ajax
Final score 2 : 4 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 50%
Model confidence 51%
UEFA Europa League
Members Settled
Crvena Zvezda Viktoria Plzeň
Final score 3 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Ja Probability 62%
Model confidence 46%
UEFA Europa League
Members Settled
Lech Posen Thun
Final score 7 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Ja Probability 63%
Model confidence 47%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.