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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
ARG Primera Nacional
Members Settled
Deportivo Madryn Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 46%
Model confidence 43%
UEFA Champions League
Members Settled
Bodo/glimt NEC Nijmegen
Final score 3 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Ja Probability 61%
Model confidence 48%
UEFA Champions League
Members Settled
LASK Linz Celtic FC
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 58%
Model confidence 58%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Valencia Real Betis
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 13%
Model confidence 45%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Malaga La Coruna
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 51%
Model confidence 47%
ICE PR
Free Settled
Breidablik Fram Reykjavik
Final score 3 : 4 WIN
Goals 2.5 Über 2.5 Probability 68%
Model confidence 52%
ENG Premier League
Members Settled
Fulham Chelsea
Final score 2 : 3 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 54%
SWE D2
Members Settled
IFK Norrkoping Falkenberg
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 44%
Model confidence 42%
SPL
Members Settled
Neom SC Al Qadsiah
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 50%
Model confidence 46%
ROM D1
Free Settled
FC Botoșani FK Csíkszereda
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
Goals 2.5 Unter 2.5 Probability 63%
Model confidence 47%
FRANKREICH D1
Members Settled
Stade Rennes Paris Saint-Germain
Final score 2 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 48%
Model confidence 51%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Elche CF FC Barcelona
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 48%
Model confidence 51%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.