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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
FRA D1
Free Settled
Le Mans Lorient
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 46%
Model confidence 44%
ITA D1
Members Settled
Monza Sassuolo
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 59%
Model confidence 45%
FRA D1
Free Settled
Monaco Lens
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 65%
Model confidence 53%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Juventus NEC Nijmegen
Final score 5 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 54%
Model confidence 56%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Celtic FC Ferencvarosi
Final score 1 : 3 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 55%
Model confidence 53%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Real Sociedad Bournemouth
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 47%
Model confidence 52%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Plzen Saint Gilloise
Final score 0 : 3 WIN
Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 69%
Model confidence 57%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Besiktas JK Marseille
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 63%
Model confidence 59%
ENG LC
Members Settled
Man City Norwich City
Final score 5 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 56%
Model confidence 59%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Real Betis Getafe
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 67%
Model confidence 63%
SWE D1 SN
Members Settled
FC Stockholm IFK Stocksund
Final score 5 : 2 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 54%
Model confidence 49%
UEFA EL
Free Settled
Levski Sofia Salzburg
Final score 0 : 1 WIN
Goals 2.5 Under 2.5 Probability 61%
Model confidence 45%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.