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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes only one selected prediction per match. Every prediction is reviewed before publication and measured after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win レート 52.4% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -10.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 166 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 87W 79L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
UEFA CL
Free Settled
AEK Athens Levski Sofia
Final score 4 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 51%
Model confidence 47%
UEFA CL
Free Settled
Lyon Fenerbahce
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 51%
Model confidence 51%
UEFA CL
Members Settled
Viking Dinamo
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
Member probability model

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SPA D1
Free Settled
Real Madrid Real Sociedad
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 53%
Model confidence 59%
ENG LC
Members Settled
Newcastle West Bromwich
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
Member probability model

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ARG Primera Nacional
Members Settled
Deportivo Madryn Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
Member probability model

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UEFA CL
Members Settled
Bodo/glimt NEC Nijmegen
Final score 3 : 0 LOSE
Member probability model

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UEFA CL
Members Settled
LASK Linz Celtic FC
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
Member probability model

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SPA D1
Members Settled
Valencia Real Betis
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Member probability model

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SPA D1
Members Settled
Malaga La Coruna
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
Member probability model

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ICE PR
Free Settled
Breidablik Fram Reykjavik
Final score 3 : 4 WIN
Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 68%
Model confidence 52%
ENG PR
Members Settled
Fulham Chelsea
Final score 2 : 3 LOSE
Member probability model

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Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Keeps every generated forecast in draft until an editor approves it for publication.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.