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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
프랑스 D1
Free Settled
Le Mans Lorient
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 46%
Model confidence 44%
프랑스 D1
Free Settled
Monaco Lens
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 65%
Model confidence 53%
이탈리아 디비전 1
Members Settled
몬차 사수올로
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
BTTS 예 Probability 59%
Model confidence 45%
UEFA 유로파리그
Members Settled
유벤투스 NEC 니イメ헨
Final score 5 : 0 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 54%
Model confidence 56%
UEFA 유로파리그
Members Settled
셀틱 FC 페렌츠바로시
Final score 1 : 3 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 55%
Model confidence 53%
UEFA 유로파리그
Members Settled
Real Sociedad Bournemouth
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 47%
Model confidence 52%
UEFA 유로파리그
Members Settled
플젠 생질루아즈
Final score 0 : 3 WIN
Goals 2.5 2.5 이상 Probability 69%
Model confidence 57%
UEFA 유로파리그
Members Settled
베식타시 JK 마르세유
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 63%
Model confidence 59%
ENG 리그 컵
Members Settled
맨체스터 시티 노리치 시티
Final score 5 : 0 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 56%
Model confidence 59%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Real Betis Getafe
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 67%
Model confidence 63%
스웨덴 디비전 1 SN
Members Settled
FC Stockholm IFK Stocksund
Final score 5 : 2 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 54%
Model confidence 49%
UEFA 유로파리그
Free Settled
Levski Sofia Salzburg
Final score 0 : 1 WIN
Goals 2.5 2.5 이하 Probability 61%
Model confidence 45%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.