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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
DAN Cup
Members Settled
Vejle Brondby
Final score 1 : 2 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 59%
Model confidence 45%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Barcelona Racing
Final score 7 : 2 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 68%
Model confidence 64%
ENG LC
Members Settled
Man United Brighton
Final score 2 : 3 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 65%
Model confidence 55%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
AC Milan Benfica
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 64%
Model confidence 56%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Hapoel Beer Sheva Dinamo
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 69%
Model confidence 54%
UEFA EL
Free Settled
Sunderland Az Alkmaar
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 43%
Model confidence 48%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Olympiakos Jagiellonia
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 44%
Model confidence 44%
ENG LC
Members Settled
Everton Wolves
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 58%
Model confidence 59%
SWE D1
Members Settled
AIK Soln Mjallby AIF
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 61%
Model confidence 56%
SUI Sl
Free Settled
Lugano St.gallen
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 51%
Model confidence 48%
POL PR
Members Settled
Korona Kielce Gornik Zabrze
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 57%
Model confidence 50%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Elche Real Madrid
Final score 2 : 3 WIN
1X2 Away Probability 45%
Model confidence 55%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.