Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works

MODEL STATUSONLINE

Engine: POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets: 1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review: Human approved
Tracking: Automatic settlement

Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record

Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome

Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds

Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes

Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle

Published board

Latest AI predictions

CRO D1 05 Sep 2026 02:00

Members Settled

Varazdin Istra 1961 Pula

Final score 0 : 0 LOSE

1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 53%

Model confidence 48%

DEN SASL 05 Sep 2026 01:00

Members Settled

Viborg Lyngby

Final score 0 : 2 LOSE

1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 42%

Model confidence 42%

GER D2 05 Sep 2026 00:30

Members Settled

Bielefeld St. Pauli

Final score 2 : 2 WIN

BTTS Oui Probability 64%

Model confidence 50%

SPA D1 04 Sep 2026 03:00

Members Settled

Real Sociedad Celta Vigo

Final score 0 : 0 LOSE

1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 50%

Model confidence 53%

France D1 04 Sep 2026 02:45

Members Settled

Toulouse Lille

Final score 0 : 1 LOSE

1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 52%

Model confidence 50%

Premier League écossaise 04 Sep 2026 02:45

Members Settled

Hibernian Midlothian

Final score 1 : 3 LOSE

1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 49%

Model confidence 46%

Coupe de Grèce 03 Sep 2026 03:15

Free Settled

PAOK Saloniki OFI Crete

Final score 0 : 0 LOSE

1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 48%

Model confidence 47%

Championnat anglais 03 Sep 2026 03:00

Members Settled

Burnley Middlesbrough

Final score 1 : 1 LOSE

1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 46%

Model confidence 49%

Premier League écossaise 03 Sep 2026 03:00

Members Settled

Falkirk Glasgow

Final score 1 : 2 LOSE

Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%

Model confidence 43%

Premier League écossaise 03 Sep 2026 02:45

Free Settled

Celtic FC Aberdeen

Final score 3 : 0 WIN

1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 50%

Model confidence 48%

Championnat anglais 03 Sep 2026 02:45

Free Settled

West Bromwich Charlton Athletic

Final score 1 : 1 LOSE

1X2 Équipe à domicile Probability 47%

Model confidence 44%

Super League suisse 03 Sep 2026 02:30

Members Settled

Thun Lausanne

Final score 0 : 0 LOSE

BTTS Oui Probability 66%

Model confidence 49%

Method, not magic

What the model actually does

01Read
Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.
02Estimate
Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.
03Review
Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.
04Audit
Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.