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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
CRO D1
Members Settled
Varazdin Istra 1961 Pula
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 53%
Model confidence 48%
DEN SASL
Members Settled
Viborg Lyngby
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 42%
Model confidence 42%
GER D2
Members Settled
Bielefeld St. Pauli
Final score 2 : 2 WIN
BTTS Ja Probability 64%
Model confidence 50%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Real Sociedad Celta Vigo
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 50%
Model confidence 53%
FRANKREICH D1
Members Settled
Toulouse Lille
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 52%
Model confidence 50%
Schottische Premiership
Members Settled
Hibernian Midlothian
Final score 1 : 3 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 49%
Model confidence 46%
Griechischer Pokal
Free Settled
PAOK Saloniki OFI Crete
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 48%
Model confidence 47%
Schottische Premiership
Members Settled
Falkirk Glasgow
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 43%
ENG LCH
Members Settled
Burnley Middlesbrough
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 46%
Model confidence 49%
Schottische Premiership
Free Settled
Celtic FC Aberdeen
Final score 3 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 50%
Model confidence 48%
ENG LCH
Free Settled
West Bromwich Charlton Athletic
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 47%
Model confidence 44%
SUI Sl
Members Settled
Thun Lausanne
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Ja Probability 66%
Model confidence 49%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.