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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
ENG Premier League
Free Settled
Arsenal Chelsea
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
Goals 2.5 Über 2.5 Probability 66%
Model confidence 60%
NOR D1
Free Settled
Molde KFUM Oslo
Final score 2 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Ja Probability 68%
Model confidence 54%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Valencia Barcelona
Final score 0 : 5 LOSE
Goals 2.5 Unter 2.5 Probability 59%
Model confidence 51%
BEL D1
Members Settled
Kortrijk Zulte Waregem
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 44%
Model confidence 42%
POR D1
Members Settled
Sporting Cp Nacional
Final score 2 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Ja Probability 67%
Model confidence 51%
BEL D1
Free Settled
Sint-Truidense LaLouviere
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
1X2 Auswärts Probability 46%
Model confidence 45%
FRANKREICH D1
Members Settled
PSG Monaco
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 61%
Model confidence 65%
SPA D1
Free Settled
Real Betis Real Madrid
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 13%
Model confidence 53%
ENG Premier League
Free Settled
Ipswich Town Liverpool
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
BTTS Ja Probability 63%
Model confidence 56%
ITA D1
Free Settled
Genoa Como
Final score 1 : 4 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 13%
Model confidence 47%
GER D1
Free Settled
VfB Stuttgart FC Koln
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 53%
Model confidence 52%
SPL
Free Settled
Al-Shabab Al Hilal
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
BTTS Ja Probability 62%
Model confidence 49%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.