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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
잉글랜드 프리미어리그
Free Settled
Arsenal Chelsea
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
Goals 2.5 2.5 이상 Probability 66%
Model confidence 60%
노르웨이 디비전 1
Free Settled
Molde KFUM Oslo
Final score 2 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 예 Probability 68%
Model confidence 54%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Valencia Barcelona
Final score 0 : 5 LOSE
Goals 2.5 2.5 이하 Probability 59%
Model confidence 51%
벨기에 디비전 1
Members Settled
Kortrijk Zulte Waregem
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 44%
Model confidence 42%
포르투갈 디비전 1
Members Settled
Sporting Cp Nacional
Final score 2 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 예 Probability 67%
Model confidence 51%
벨기에 디비전 1
Free Settled
Sint-Truidense LaLouviere
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
1X2 어웨이 Probability 46%
Model confidence 45%
프랑스 D1
Members Settled
파리 생제르맹 모나코
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 홈 Probability 61%
Model confidence 65%
SPA D1
Free Settled
레알 베티스 레알 마드리드
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 13%
Model confidence 53%
잉글랜드 프리미어리그
Free Settled
Ipswich Town Liverpool
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
BTTS 예 Probability 63%
Model confidence 56%
이탈리아 디비전 1
Free Settled
Genoa Como
Final score 1 : 4 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 13%
Model confidence 47%
독일 디비전 1
Free Settled
VfB Stuttgart FC Koln
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 홈 Probability 53%
Model confidence 52%
싱가포르 프리미어 리그
Free Settled
Al-Shabab Al Hilal
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
BTTS 예 Probability 62%
Model confidence 49%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.