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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
英格兰超级联赛
Free Settled
Arsenal Chelsea
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
Goals 2.5 大于2.5 Probability 66%
Model confidence 60%
挪威 D1
Free Settled
Molde KFUM Oslo
Final score 2 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 68%
Model confidence 54%
西班牙乙级联赛1
Members Settled
Valencia Barcelona
Final score 0 : 5 LOSE
Goals 2.5 小於 2.5 Probability 59%
Model confidence 51%
比利时甲级联赛 1
Members Settled
Kortrijk Zulte Waregem
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 44%
Model confidence 42%
葡萄牙D1
Members Settled
Sporting Cp Nacional
Final score 2 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 67%
Model confidence 51%
比利时甲级联赛 1
Free Settled
Sint-Truidense LaLouviere
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
1X2 客队 Probability 46%
Model confidence 45%
法国D1
Members Settled
PSG Monaco
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 61%
Model confidence 65%
西班牙乙级联赛1
Free Settled
Real Betis Real Madrid
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 13%
Model confidence 53%
英格兰超级联赛
Free Settled
Ipswich Town Liverpool
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 63%
Model confidence 56%
意大利甲级联赛 1
Free Settled
Genoa Como
Final score 1 : 4 LOSE
Correct score 1:1 Probability 13%
Model confidence 47%
德国D1
Free Settled
VfB Stuttgart FC Koln
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 53%
Model confidence 52%
苏格兰超级联赛
Free Settled
Al-Shabab Al Hilal
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 62%
Model confidence 49%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.