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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes only one selected prediction per match. Every prediction is reviewed before publication and measured after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 52.4% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -10.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 166 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 87W 79L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
BRA Serie B
Members Settled
Gremio Novorizontino Cuiaba
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
Member probability model

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BEL D1
Members Settled
Zulte Waregem Charleroi
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
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ENG PR
Free Settled
Man United Man City
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 70%
Model confidence 63%
POL PR
Members Settled
Legia Widzew lodz
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
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BEL D1
Free Settled
Racing Genk KAA Gent
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 64%
Model confidence 49%
ENG PR
Members Settled
Sunderland Arsenal
Final score 0 : 2 WIN
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Categoría Primera A
Members Settled
Independiente Santa Fe Deportes Tolima
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
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POR D1
Members Settled
Estrela Sporting Braga
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
Member probability model

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UEFA CL
Members Settled
Bayern Munchen Bodo/glimt
Final score 5 : 0 WIN
Member probability model

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UEFA CL
Free Settled
Como RB Leipzig
Final score 4 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 55%
Model confidence 51%
UEFA CL
Members Settled
Man United Sabah FK Baku
Final score 4 : 0 LOSE
Member probability model

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UEFA CL
Free Settled
Man Utd Sabah FK Baku
Final score 4 : 0 WIN
Goals 2.5 Over 2.5 Probability 70%
Model confidence 59%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Keeps every generated forecast in draft until an editor approves it for publication.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.