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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
苏格兰BC
Members Settled
Hamilton Cowdenbeath
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 61%
Model confidence 45%
英格兰足球联赛锦标赛
Free Settled
Chesterfield Port Vale
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
Goals 2.5 大于2.5 Probability 64%
Model confidence 50%
哥伦比亚D1
Members Settled
Medellin Jaguares
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 62%
Model confidence 45%
罗马尼亚甲级联赛 1
Free Settled
Petrolul FK Csikszereda
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 44%
Model confidence 44%
罗马尼亚甲级联赛 1
Free Settled
Petrolul Miercurea
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 42%
Model confidence 42%
丹麦D1
Members Settled
Koge Hobro
Final score 5 : 2 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 62%
Model confidence 45%
丹麦D1
Members Settled
HB Koge Hobro
Final score 5 : 2 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 62%
Model confidence 45%
瑞典D1超级联赛
Free Settled
Sodra IF Skovde AIK
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
1X2 首页 Probability 54%
Model confidence 48%
罗马尼亚甲级联赛 1
Members Settled
SC Otelul Corvinul
Final score 2 : 3 LOSE
1X2 首页 Probability 51%
Model confidence 46%
斯洛伐克 D2
Members Settled
FC Artmedia FK Pohronie
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS 是 Probability 61%
Model confidence 45%
西班牙乙级联赛1
Members Settled
Valencia Real Sociedad
Final score 2 : 3 WIN
BTTS 是 Probability 62%
Model confidence 54%
西班牙乙级联赛1
Free Settled
Sevilla Barcelona
Final score 1 : 3 WIN
1X2 客队 Probability 51%
Model confidence 54%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.