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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
SCOBC
Members Settled
Hamilton Cowdenbeath
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Ja Probability 61%
Model confidence 45%
EFL Trophy
Free Settled
Chesterfield FC Port Vale FC
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
Goals 2.5 Über 2.5 Probability 64%
Model confidence 50%
COL D1
Members Settled
Medellin Jaguares
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
BTTS Ja Probability 62%
Model confidence 45%
ROM D1
Free Settled
Petrolul FK Csikszereda
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 44%
Model confidence 44%
ROM D1
Free Settled
Petrolul Miercurea
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 42%
Model confidence 42%
DEN D1
Members Settled
Koge Hobro
Final score 5 : 2 WIN
BTTS Ja Probability 62%
Model confidence 45%
DEN D1
Members Settled
HB Koge Hobro
Final score 5 : 2 WIN
BTTS Ja Probability 62%
Model confidence 45%
Schweden-Liga 1 SN
Free Settled
Sodra IF Skovde AIK
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
1X2 Startseite Probability 54%
Model confidence 48%
SVK D2
Members Settled
FC Artmedia FK Pohronie
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Ja Probability 61%
Model confidence 45%
ROM D1
Members Settled
SC Otelul Corvinul
Final score 2 : 3 LOSE
1X2 Startseite Probability 51%
Model confidence 46%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Valencia Real Sociedad
Final score 2 : 3 WIN
BTTS Ja Probability 62%
Model confidence 54%
SPA D1
Free Settled
Sevilla Barcelona
Final score 1 : 3 WIN
1X2 Auswärts Probability 51%
Model confidence 54%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.