A football prediction website claiming 90% accuracy has given you a question, not a completed answer. Ninety per cent of which forecasts, over what dates, under which settlement rules? Until those details are available, the percentage cannot support a meaningful comparison.
Verification begins by reconstructing the claim from its underlying entries. You do not need to decide whether the website is dishonest before asking for that evidence. The number may be correct within a narrow definition while still being unsuitable for the conclusion a reader draws.
Write down the claim before inspecting the results
Save the exact wording, the date you saw it and any footnotes. Record whether it refers to one market, all predictions, one competition or a selected period. “Our last ten picks” and “all forecasts this season” are different claims even if both display the same percentage.
Next identify the unit being counted. A single match selection, an accumulator and a completed staged sequence are different units. A percentage based on sequences cannot be relabelled as the proportion of individual selections that won.
Rebuild the numerator and denominator
Here is a fictional archive of 100 published entries. It is an arithmetic example, not an OptaTips performance record.
| Recorded status | Entries | Question to resolve |
|---|---|---|
| Full wins | 72 | Do the stated markets and scores support each win? |
| Full losses | 8 | Are unsuccessful entries included in the advertised period? |
| Void or refunded | 10 | Does the service explain their treatment? |
| Pending | 10 | Have these events actually settled? |
Under a clearly stated binary, settled-selection definition that excludes void and pending entries, the win rate is 72 divided by 80, or 90%. The 72 wins are also 72% of all 100 published entries. That second fraction answers a different question; it should not be presented as a competing settled win rate.
The correct response is to state the definition and show the reconciliation. Do not count voids as wins or losses without a rule, and do not quietly remove losses. Quarter-handicap or other partial settlements require their own treatment rather than being forced into this binary example.
Check whether the market makes the percentage comparable
Predicting an exact score and selecting a double-chance outcome involve different events. A high success rate for a broad outcome does not establish better forecasting than a lower success rate for a narrower outcome. The prices and difficulty of the selections also matter.
Keep separate rows for each market and line. If a website combines them into a single headline, request the breakdown. When original probabilities are published, a yes-or-no hit rate also discards how confident the forecasts were. Our probability explainer describes why a forecast percentage is not a promised result.
Look for evidence that predates kickoff
A results screenshot can show a genuine result without proving that the selection was published beforehand. Look for the original prediction, its market and line, its publication time and any subsequent edits. An editable webpage timestamp alone is weaker evidence than a securely recorded original entry.
CAP’s UK advertising guidance discusses independent proofing of tipster claims and the limits of testimonials. It does not mean every website with an archive has been independently audited. Ask who recorded the entries, what was recorded and whether the verifier was independent.
Separate an accurate calculation from a useful conclusion
Even a correctly reconstructed 90% figure may cover a short period, a selected group or prices that readers could not obtain. Those limitations remain after the arithmetic is fixed. There is no universal number of selections that automatically certifies forecasting skill.
Record your conclusion in two parts: “The reported percentage can or cannot be reproduced under this definition,” and “These limitations remain.” Do not turn a historical calculation into a forecast of profit. For return calculations, use the separate win rate and profit guide.
If the underlying entries are unavailable, mark the claim unverified. That is a precise description of the evidence gap, not a substitute accusation or a reason to invent a more favourable number.
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Foto: Soccer pitch and football field at Churchill High School.jpg by Rick Obst / CC BY 2.0, melalui Wikimedia Commons. Gambar sumber yang telah diubah ukurannya disediakan oleh Wikimedia; situs ini menghasilkan versi tampilan yang telah diubah ukurannya dan dikompresi. Foto ilustrasi, bukan bukti keakuratan prakiraan cuaca atau bentuk dukungan.
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