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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes one validated prediction per match. Generated predictions are automatically approved and tracked after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 54.3% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -40.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 276 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 150W 126L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
BRA Serie B
Free Settled
Cuiaba Athletic Club
Final score 3 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 47%
Model confidence 44%
UEFA CL
Free Settled
FC Porto Man City
Final score 0 : 2 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 67%
Model confidence 61%
UEFA CL
Members Settled
Dortmund Villarreal
Final score 3 : 2 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 56%
Model confidence 58%
UEFA CL
Free Settled
Real Madrid Inter Milan
Final score 2 : 1 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 63%
Model confidence 66%
ENG LC
Free Settled
Sunderland Hull City
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 45%
Model confidence 46%
SPA D1
Members Settled
Elche Real Sociedad
Final score 2 : 3 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 62%
Model confidence 60%
POR D1
Free Settled
Estoril FC Arouca
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 59%
Model confidence 44%
FRA D2
Members Settled
Nantes Nancy
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 45%
Model confidence 45%
ITA D1
Members Settled
Udines Lazio
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 43%
Model confidence 44%
CRC Primera Division
Free Settled
AD San Carlos Sporting FC
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 47%
Model confidence 44%
ITA D1
Members Settled
Juventus AC Milan
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
BTTS Yes Probability 58%
Model confidence 50%
POR D1
Free Settled
Vitoria Guimaraes Casa Pia AC
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
BTTS Yes Probability 64%
Model confidence 47%
Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Validates the selected market and fixture timing, then automatically approves and publishes the forecast.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.