Confronta gli storici dei pronosticatori considerando restituzioni, dimensione del campione e costi

A cura del team Opta Tips

A tipster with more winning selections can still have a worse cash record. To compare two histories, use the same period and a defined stake model, then calculate the money returned.

Start with a controlled comparison

Here are two invented records of 20 settled binary bets, each with a one-unit stake. Prices are constant within each record solely to make the arithmetic visible.

For A, 14 × 1.30 = 18.20 returned against 20 staked. For B, 10 × 2.20 = 22 returned. The comparison explains a calculation, not which type of tipster will do better next month.

Recalculate real entries row by row

Actual records often use different odds and stakes. Sum the returns and subtract the stakes for each entry. A simple average price multiplied by a headline win percentage may not reproduce the profit.

State how refunds, half-wins, half-losses and pending bets are treated. If one profile counts series and another counts single matches, their denominators differ. Read the format explanation before comparing their percentages.

Add costs without inventing income

Suppose following B’s illustrative record also costs 3 units in attributable access charges. Its result after that charge becomes −1 unit, although the selection-only record remains +2. Preserve both figures and identify their scope.

Your accepted price may differ from the quoted record. Include actual fees and commission where relevant. Do not assume that a paid subscription recovers its cost or that a short winning sample demonstrates a durable advantage.

Inspect the sample and its completeness

Check dates, markets, opponent coverage and the number of settled entries. Twenty bets are a small teaching sample, not a threshold proving skill. Look for losses and corrections alongside winners, and describe any part of the history you cannot inspect.

Overlapping selections also matter. Following two tipsters on the same outcome increases the money exposed to it; it does not create two independent sources of profit.

Use OptaTips records as defined evidence

Open the directory dei pronosticatori and inspect the available dated entries behind a summary. The Opta Football Predictions overview distinguishes source types, while the post-match guide shows how to check settlement. Compare what the evidence supports, with its limits visible.