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Probability desk · जीएमटी+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes only one selected prediction per match. Every prediction is reviewed before publication and measured after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win दर 55.6% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -10.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 198 No backfilled या hidden outcomes
Record 110W 88L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

स्थिति
Signal
SPA D1
Free Settled
Sevilla Barcelona
Final score 1 : 3 जीतें
1X2 Away Probability 51%
Model confidence 54%
FRA D1
Free Settled
Le Mans Lorient
Final score 2 : 1 जीतें
1X2 होम Probability 46%
Model confidence 44%
ITA D1
Members Settled
Monza Sassuolo
Final score 2 : 1 जीतें
Member probability model

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FRA D1
Free Settled
Monaco Lens
Final score 2 : 1 जीतें
BTTS Yes Probability 65%
Model confidence 53%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Juventus NEC Nijmegen
Final score 5 : 0 जीतें
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UEFA EL
Members Settled
Celtic FC Ferencvarosi
Final score 1 : 3 हारना
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UEFA EL
Members Settled
Real Sociedad Bournemouth
Final score 1 : 2 हारना
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UEFA EL
Members Settled
Plzen Saint Gilloise
Final score 0 : 3 जीतें
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UEFA EL
Members Settled
Besiktas JK Marseille
Final score 4 : 1 जीतें
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ENG LC
Members Settled
Man City Norwich City
Final score 5 : 0 जीतें
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SWE D1 SN
Members Settled
FC Stockholm IFK Stocksund
Final score 5 : 2 जीतें
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SPA D1
Members Settled
Real Betis Getafe
Final score 1 : 0 जीतें
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Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Keeps every generated forecast in draft until an editor approves it for publication.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.