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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes only one selected prediction per match. Every prediction is reviewed before publication and measured after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V2
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 57.1% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI +20.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 77 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 44W 33L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

UEFA EL
Members Settled
Benfica Aarhus AGF
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
Member probability model

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SPA D1
Members Settled
Rayo Vallecano Alaves
Final score 1 : 1 LOSE
Member probability model

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UEFA ECL
Free Settled
FC Sion AFC Ajax
Final score 2 : 4 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 50%
Model confidence 51%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Crvena Zvezda Viktoria Plzen
Final score 3 : 0 LOSE
Member probability model

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UEFA EL
Members Settled
Lech Poznan Thun
Final score 7 : 0 LOSE
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UEFA EL
Members Settled
Trabzonspor Ferencvarosi
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Member probability model

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UEFA ECL
Members Settled
Tromso IL Brighton
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
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UEFA EL
Free Settled
Egnatia Lillestrom
Final score 0 : 0 LOSE
1X2 Home Probability 58%
Model confidence 52%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Mjallby AIF Salzburg
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Member probability model

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UEFA EL
Members Settled
Kairat Anderlecht
Final score 0 : 3 LOSE
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SPA D1
Members Settled
Atletico Madrid Malaga
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
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UEFA CL
Members Settled
Dinamo Viking
Final score 1 : 1 WIN
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Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Keeps every generated forecast in draft until an editor approves it for publication.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.