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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes only one selected prediction per match. Every prediction is reviewed before publication and measured after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V2
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win rate 57.1% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI +20.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 77 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 44W 33L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

SPA D1
Free Settled
RCD Espanyol Real Madrid
Final score 1 : 2 LOSE
Goals 2.5 Under 2.5 Probability 58%
Model confidence 54%
POR D1
Members Settled
Sporting Cp Alverca
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
Member probability model

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ENG PR
Free Settled
Brentford Tottenham
Final score 3 : 0 WIN
1X2 Home Probability 50%
Model confidence 58%
SUI Sl
Members Settled
Luzern Lausanne Sports
Final score 1 : 0 LOSE
Member probability model

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ENG PR
Members Settled
Everton Crystal Palace
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
Member probability model

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ENG PR
Members Settled
Nottingham Leeds
Final score 0 : 1 LOSE
Member probability model

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ASEAN Cup
Members Settled
Thailand Vietnam
Final score 0 : 2 WIN
Member probability model

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ENG PR
Members Settled
Hull City Man United
Final score 2 : 0 WIN
Member probability model

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PER L1
Members Settled
Alianza Sporting Cristal
Final score 3 : 1 WIN
Member probability model

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ENG PR
Members Settled
Arsenal Coventry City
Final score 3 : 0 WIN
Member probability model

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SPA D1
Members Settled
Real Betis Real Sociedad
Final score 1 : 0 WIN
Member probability model

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FRA D1
Members Settled
Marseille Strasbourg
Final score 4 : 0 WIN
Member probability model

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Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Keeps every generated forecast in draft until an editor approves it for publication.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.